Diagnosed cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Lagos State, Nigeria: a retrospective time analysis study

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Lagos

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CDV) is a major public health issue in low- and middle-income countries. Although about 80% of the approximately 20 million annual global cardiovascular disease deaths occur in these countries, there is limited research on its temporal dynamics.
Objective: This study aims to unravel the dynamics of CVD morbidity and mortality in Lagos State, Nigeria, between 2008 and 2018.
Methods: A descriptive time-series analysis of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in Lagos, Nigeria, and a retrospective review of medical records of patients diagnosed with cardiovascular diseases at a teaching hospital in Lagos State from 2008 to 2018 were conducted. Descriptive time-series analysis was used to identify patterns and trends in incidence and mortality over time.
Results: A total of 6,780 cases diagnosed cardiovascular disease, including 1,528 mortalities, were retrieved from medical records. Females had the highest morbidity rate (51.0%), while males had the highest mortality rate (51.0%). Morbidity was highest among female patients in their 60s, and mortality was highest among male patients in their 50s. An 8-year trend cycle and a January–November seasonality cycle were observed in morbidity, while a January–September seasonality cycle was detected in mortality.
Conclusion: This study reveals sinusoidal fluctuations in cardiovascular morbidity and rising mortality in Lagos State. Time-series analysis effectively identifies these trends, guiding targeted interventions to prevent and manage cardiovascular diseases in Nigeria.