Modelling the Relationship Between COVID-19 Vaccination and Cases/Deaths: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries.

Abstract

This study examined the relationships between COVID-19 vaccinations, on the one hand, and COVID-19 cases and attributable deaths, on the other hand. This information is needed to fully inform public health decision-making on interventions, an area that has not been explored. The study used a sample of 84 countries, categorised into Africa (19), Asia (23), Europe (26), South America (8) and North America (8), spanning 01 January 2021 to 02 November 2022. This study employed the feasible generalised least squares (GLS) estimator for the analysis. The results showed that an increase in vaccination reduced the number of cases and deaths. The regional findings showed that vaccination reduced the number of cases in Europe and South America. It also reduced the number of cases in Africa, but the difference was not statistically significant. Also, vaccination significantly reduces deaths in all regions except Asia. The findings of this study suggest that vaccination is likely the best way to end this pandemic. It provides supporting evidence that vaccination is critical for reducing COVID-19 cases and even more so for preventing deaths among infected individuals.  Also, vaccination has yielded greater health benefits in reducing cases and deaths in some regions of the world than others. Thus, continuously improving vaccine coverage and monitoring outcomes will be critical to translating efficacious vaccines into desirable health impacts.  Accordingly, policies promoting vaccination, such as vaccine production in additional countries and financial or other incentives to reduce hesitancy, should be encouraged by the World Health Organisation (WHO), countries, and states.